Parkson Holdings Target Price Raised To RM 6.30

Riding on the China boost

1. PHB’s TP is raised to RM6.30 after PRG’s TP raise to HK$13.51.
2. On better retail sales prospects in China, we have lifted PHB’s FY10-11F earnings by 0.8-4.3%.
3. Upgrade PHB to Buy with our TP implying a 22% upside potential.

Upgrading PHB to BUY. We have raised our RNAV-based TP for Parkson Holdings (PHB) to RM6.30 (from RM5.40) implying upside potential of 22%, prompting our upgrade to Buy (from Hold). The higher valuation is to capture the upward revision in its 51.6%-owned HK-listed subsidiary Parkson Retail Group (PRG) by DBSV HK to Hold (from Fully Valued) with new TP of HK$13.51 (from HK$11.31), which is derived from a target FY10 P/E of 27x (22x previously).

Earnings raised on better sales prospect. PRG’s FY10-11 net profit forecasts have also been raised by 2% and 6% respectively premised on stronger Same-Store-Sales (SSS) growth assumption of 10% (from 9%) for FY10F and 12% (from 10%) for FY11F. As highlighted in our 28 Sep report, PRG’s sales could surprise on the upside with China’s swift economy recovery. Following PRG’s earnings upgrades, we have revised PHB’s FY10-11F earnings by 0.8% and 4.3%, respectively. Meanwhile, PHB’s 1QFY10 results (due 16 Nov) should see little surprise as 1Q is normally a quiet quarter in the absence of major festivities in China. We estimate 1QFY10 net profit of c.RM70m (+17% y-o-y growth).

Price correlation pattern favours PHB now. The difference between PHB’s total market cap and its share of PRG’s market cap has widened to 32% currently, versus a 1-year average of
29% (see Figure 2). Given their historical relative share price performance pattern, we believe PHB could catch up by outperforming PRG going forward, thus narrowing the valuation gap. International portfolio managers may also want to diversify their currency risks as the Ringgit is expected to strengthen against the HKD (which is pegged to US$), rising 3.9% by end-10 based on our estimates.