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Monday, May 21, 2012

QE3 will work under the right circumstances. But I don’t believe such circumstances prevail at this time

“As popular as it might be in some quarters to rule out further LSAPs (QE3, as it is known), I do not think this option can be taken off the table. QE3 will work under the right circumstances. But I don’t believe such circumstances prevail at this time.”

The above commentary was from a speech this morning by Dennis Lockhart – President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta – at the Institute of Regulation & Risk in Tokyo, Japan. There, Lockhart argued that although the U.S. economy is in a “phase…when sustained monetary accommodation is warranted to keep the U.S. economic recovery going,” the current environment does not warrant a third round of money printing, at least not yet.

Additional highlights from the Atlanta Fed President’s speech included:
“Circumstances today in the United States call for continued measured efforts to quicken the pace of recovery and shrink unemployment, while keeping inflation controlled and close to the FOMC’s official target of 2 percent. Those efforts for the time being should fall in the realm of communications. Current economic data continue to be a mix of positives and negatives. Consumer activity is continuing to grow, and manufacturing is expanding. At the same time, we’ve seen a recent slowdown in business investment, and the pace of job creation has weakened.”

“There are larger-than-normal risks to my outlook, however. Chief among them is the potential for broad spillover from Europe to the U.S. and global economy resulting from financial system disruption as well as further economic slowdown.”

Wednesday, April 11, 2012

Beige Book - continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace from mid-February through late March

The release of the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book on Wednesday afternoon indicated that the U.S. economy “continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace from mid-February through late March.”
Highlights from the Beige Book – a collection of economic reports from each regional branch of the U.S. central bank – included:
- Manufacturing continued to expand in most Districts, with gains noted in automotive and high-technology industries.
- Manufacturers in many Districts expressed optimism about near-term growth prospects, but they are somewhat concerned about rising petroleum prices.
- While the near-term outlook for household spending was encouraging, contacts in several Districts expressed concerns that rising gas prices could limit discretionary spending in the months to come.
- Residential real estate showed some improvement, with many contacts citing expansion in the construction of multi-family housing.
- Banking conditions were largely stable, with some improvement seen in loan demand. Several Districts reported increased credit quality.
- Hiring was steady or showed a modest increase across many Districts.
- Overall price inflation was modest. However, contacts in many Districts commented on rising transportation costs due to higher fuel prices.

Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Fed Policies creating enormous amounts of paper

“By creating enormous amounts of paper, and hoarding higher duration securities like Treasury securities, the Fed is trying to force investors into risky assets until the prospective returns on all competing assets are driven so low that investors and banks holding cash are willing to just sit on it. In short, the Fed has focused its efforts on creating a bubble in risky assets, on the misguided, semi-psychotic, and empirically disprovable notion that this will make people feel wealthier and get them to spend and borrow – despite the fact that their incomes can’t support it without massive government transfer payments.”

The above commentary is from the Hussman Funds’ latest Weekly Market Comment, entitled “A False Sense of Security.” As is evident from the content, Dr. John Hussman is not a big fan of Ben Bernanke and his monetary policies.  In his piece, the long-time Fed critic and investor discussed his particularly dire outlook for the markets in light of “an unusually hostile set of indicator syndromes, most notably, an ‘overvalued, overbought, overbullish, rising-yields’ syndrome that has historically been unfavorable for stocks regardless of prevailing Fed policy or trend-following indicators.”

Thursday, March 22, 2012

“2012 Won’t Look so Bad,” But U.S. Recession by 2014

Legendary investor Jim Rogers predicted more challenging times ahead for the U.S. economy, although he does not seem them occurring this year.

Rogers discussed his latest outlook for the financial markets and economy. “The overall situation is getting much worse because the debt is going through the roof for all of us,” he contended. “You should be worried about 2013, 2014 but overall 2012 won’t look so bad.”
Rogers also noted that “Profitability for American companies is at an all time high if you measure return on equity. Some people anticipate that profits cannot get much better but even if they do they can’t last much longer.”

With regard to where he’s investing currently, Rogers stated that “I personally invest in real assets. If the economy improves I’ll make money because the demand for those assets will increase. On the other side, when governments get in trouble they print more money and when they do that you can protect yourself by owning real assets.”

Monday, March 19, 2012

Fed’s Dudley displayed a particularly cautious stance on the state of the U.S. economy

William Dudley, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, displayed a particularly cautious stance on the state of the U.S. economy in a speech this morning.

In prepared remarks at the Long Island Association in Melville, New York, Dudley stated that while recent U.S. economic data has shown considerable improvement, “it is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods.”

“Real economic activity has yet to be strong enough on a sustained basis to make a big dent in the overall amount of slack in the U.S. economy,” the New York Fed President added. “While it is true that growth was stronger in the fourth quarter, most of that growth was due to inventory accumulation. Growth of final sales was actually quite weak. Historically, a quarter in which inventory investment makes a significant growth contribution is typically followed by a quarter in which that growth contribution is modest or even negative. That appears to be what is shaping up for the first quarter of this year.”

Dudley – known as one of the most dovish members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), along with Chairman Ben Bernanke – went on to pour some cold water on the better than expected employment data of late.

“Although the sharp decline in the unemployment from 9 percent last September to 8.3 percent in February suggests we are doing better than that, it is important to recognize that about half of that decline was due to a declining labor force participation rate.  In fact, had the labor force participation rate not declined from around 66 percent in mid-2008 to under 64 percent in February, the unemployment rate would still be over 10 percent. Also, it appears that productivity growth has slumped recently. Although that means that a given amount of growth translates into bigger employment gains, it certainly is not an unmitigated good development.”

Friday, March 16, 2012

Gold Price Consolidates, QE3 Coming by June?

 The Goldman economist went on to raise the issue that “The economic indicators are improving, financial conditions remain accommodative, and inflation is at or above the Fed’s target. So why should they ease further?”  He responded by noting that “The improvement might not last; Even if the improvement does last, faster growth would be desirable to push down the unemployment rate more quickly; and not easing might be equivalent to tightening” due to his contention that the “bond market currently discounts some probability of QE3.”

Hatzius subsequently addressed another point of contention by asking “Wouldn’t QE3 be inconsistent with the Fed’s observed reaction function over the past few years?”  While he acknowledged that “at some level” it would be inconsistent, the Goldman Sachs economist noted that the FOMC currently contains even more dovish members than in past years.  Additionally, Hatzius noted that “At the January 25 FOMC press conference, Chairman Bernanke seemed to indicate a materially lower threshold for additional easing when he said that he saw a ‘very strong case’ for more easing if the economy evolved in line with the SEP projections–which projected neither a large inflation undershoot nor a growth slowdown.”

In sum, if Hatzius’ forecast proves correct, the gold price is likely to receive a considerable tailwind in the form of further money printing by the Fed.  Furthermore, judging by the prior two rounds of QE, the recent weakness in the price of gold is likely to be viewed as another correction before the yellow metal’s bull market resumes.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

CIMB Price Move Close To 200MA

CIMB price had move up slowly however with such good news for good earning the share price did not react like usual ( like MayBank & PBBank).

Now the price is close to 200MA, if the price broken this level than price will surely move up but if not this spell bearish for the long term investment.

Monday, March 12, 2012

Foreign Fund Still Keep Buying Into Malaysia Share Market

Foreign fund investor become big buyer in Malaysia share market. Printed money from US and Euro is flowing into Malaysia in high rate. All this money did not invest in direct economic they just floating in the market.

Wednesday, March 7, 2012

Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage

Commodity and stock prices turned higher Wednesday afternoon after reports that the Federal Reserve is considering a “sterilized” form of bond buying. The Wall Street Journal reported that under the potential program, “The Fed would print new money to buy long-term mortgage or Treasury bonds but effectively tie up that money by borrowing it back for short periods at low rates. The aim of such an approach would be to relieve anxieties that money printing could fuel inflation later, a fear widely expressed by critics of the Fed’s previous efforts to aid the recovery.”

As for the broader equity markets, the S&P 500 Index rallied 0.7% to 1,353.09

Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Greece is “very close to running out of alternatives” besides leaving the euro zone

Dr. Paul Krugman, the Princeton professor who won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2008, warned Europe that Greece is “very close to running out of alternatives” besides leaving the euro zone.

Krugman’s comments – coming yesterday in Lisbon, Portugal – followed Germany’s approval of a second financial bailout package for Greece.  In addition, Standard & Poor’s downgraded the Greek sovereign debt rating to “Selective Default.”  According to a Bloomberg report, “S&P dropped Greece’s rating from CC, two levels above default, after the government added clauses to its debt designed to mop up investors unwilling to take part in a bond exchange.”

Other highlights from the report included:
Krugman also said that Portugal, which along with Ireland and Greece has received an international bailout, is not at the same stage as Greece and “with luck it never will be.” Still, it’s “hard to believe” the country will return to bond markets in 2013, he said.
It’s a “highly implausible proposition,” Krugman said. “What will have happened in 19 months?  The major events that will certainly have happened are a European recession and an outright undisguised Greek default and possibly a Greek exit from the euro. And none of these are going to make it easier for Portugal.”

Krugman said that euro membership has turned out to be “unfortunate,” exposing peripheral economies to “extreme risk with no easy way out.” The Nobel-prize laureate said tougher budget cuts won’t help these countries as “some austerity is necessary but calls for ever more austerity are very disruptive.”

“It may be that in the end, there might come a decision that the euro was a mistake,” Krugman said. “That’s going to be difficult for anyone to acknowledge” and should come in a time of crisis for Europe but it’s a “very real possibility.”

Asked about Chinese aid for Europe, Krugman said that it’s not needed as the resources to solve the debt turmoil are “all here in Europe.” U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in a Feb. 25 speech in Mexico that the region needs to make its crisis-fighting commitments “credible.”

Monday, February 27, 2012

HLBank In A Good Look

HLBank is a very good counter to invest because this bank is same like PBBank. However if to buy into it still need to wait for the index big dip.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Gold is likely to reach a new all-time record nominal high of $2,000 per ounce by April

The price of gold is likely to reach a new all-time record nominal high of $2,000 per ounce by April of this year, according to Huntington Asset Advisors’ Peter Sorrentino. In a recent Bloomberg interview, Sorrentino – a senior fund manager at Huntington – discussed his bullish short-term outlook for the yellow metal.

“Gold had a very substantial run early last year and has gone through a corrective phase,” he noted.  ”Some of this we think is attributable to the MF Global debacle.  We think that frightened some commodity traders and some investors in commodities and that some institutional money headed for the sidelines after that.  But when we look at the amount of U.S. Treasury debt held by our major export partners, we’re beginning to see significant systematic reductions in their Treasury holdings.  They’re I think uncomfortable with holding that much of their reserves in dollar-denominated assets.”

Sorrentino went on to say that “We’re continuing to see central bank buying of gold by China.  Russia has effectively nationalized all production; all the mines have to sell to the central bank.  Venezuela nationalized their mining industry.  We’re seeing gold being bought again in India as well as Vietnam and other countries.  So there’s a continual growing of demand.”

Wednesday, February 15, 2012

Fed Minutes Show FOMC Divided on QE3

The latest Fed minutes showed a growing divide among hawkish and dovish members over the prospects for a third round of quantitative easing (QE3).
One of the key sections of the Fed minutes – a recap of the most recent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting – indicated that:

A few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions–including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee’s objective–could warrant the initiation of additional securities purchases before long. Other members indicated that such policy action could become necessary if the economy lost momentum or if inflation seemed likely to remain below its mandate-consistent rate of 2 percent over the medium run. In contrast, one member judged that maintaining the current degree of policy accommodation beyond the near term would likely be inappropriate; that member anticipated that a preemptive tightening of monetary policy would be necessary before the end of 2014 to keep inflation close to 2 percent.

Wednesday, January 18, 2012

Maybe the fall of the Euro will be the 2012 catastrophe that the Mayans predicted

“We continue to hold gold and gold mining equities, reflecting our concerns that global fiscal and monetary policies continue to tempt fate.”

The above comment comes from the 2011 year-end investor letter of Greenlight Capital, the investment firm run by hedge fund magnate David Einhorn. As one of the more prominent gold bulls of late, Einhorn has held a considerable stake in the SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) for several years and acquired a large position in the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX) last year.

Although the majority of Greenlight’s year-end letter did not focus on the firm’s gold positions, Einhorn did note that the yellow metal itself and the GDX were two of Greenlight’s five largest positions as of December 31, 2011.

The letter also discussed several macroeconomic issues that are likely to have an indirect impact on gold prices in the year ahead. Highlights of those include:

The global environment is very complicated. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve has taken a much-needed break from quantitative easing (at least for the moment).

Asia appears to be in much worse shape than it was at this time last year and could be a drag on the world economy going forward.

The European currency crisis has continued to worsen…The latest solution is a work-in-progress treaty being heavily negotiated that, in its current incarnation, will only need to be ratified by a subset of the Eurozone countries. While the leaders have committed in principle, there is significant risk that once the details emerge (and the necessary electorates are consulted), we will discover that some leaders pledged with their fingers cross and, as with prior efforts, this too will fail to get the job done. 2012 may be the year in which the currency crisis will no longer be kept at bay by politicians buying time with empty promises. Maybe the fall of the Euro will be the 2012 catastrophe that the Mayans predicted.

Thursday, January 5, 2012

MayBank Likely Rally Up To RM8.60 Level Soon

Base on Maybank chart, share price likely rally up to RM8.60 level in short term. This level is the old high for 2011.

However, in long term MayBank is hard to hold on this support level.

Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Potential for a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) will continue to be a critical factor for the gold price heading into 2012

Looking ahead to the first trading week of the new year, a slew of U.S. economic reports are likely to serve as catalysts for the gold price. Later this morning, the ISM Index – a key manufacturing gauge – and a report on Construction Spending will be released. The latest Fed minutes – from last month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting – are due out this afternoon. The remainder of the week includes several data points on the labor market – with ADP employment and weekly jobless claims scheduled for Thursday, followed by the monthly non-farm payrolls data on Friday.

The Federal Reserve will undoubtedly be keeping a close eye on the economic data as it prepares for its next FOMC meeting on January 25-26. The potential for a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) will continue to be a critical factor for the gold price heading into 2012. Thus far, the Ben Bernanke-led Fed has stressed the importance of maintaining accommodative monetary policies for the foreseeable future, but has yet to launch a new money printing campaign.

While the calendar is considerably quieter in Europe this week, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy announced yesterday that they will meet in Berlin on January 9 to discuss next steps in combating the sovereign debt crisis. Euro zone officials are then scheduled to meet on January 30 at the next European Summit to draft a stricter set of measures for reigning in government spending.

Commenting on the outlook for the gold price, VTB Capital analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov wrote in a recent note to clients that “Longer-term players and physical buyers are likely to return to the market in the first half (of 2012), while the latest price retreat could serve as a good encouragement for hesitant market participants…There is little alternative to gold in times of economic uncertainty, despite the recent rush for the dollar. Gold stands on its own in terms of safe haven buying and bullion allocations are only likely to gain with currency protectionism still at large.”

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