tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27504100411130097882023-06-20T05:21:25.657-07:00FBM KLCIFBM KLCI | Malaysia Share Market | Make Money With Share Market | Bursa Malaysia | KLSE | Warrant | Share Market | Make Profit In Share MarketUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2750410041113009788.post-7465250440586398082011-06-23T19:39:00.000-07:002011-06-23T19:40:06.998-07:00GAMUDA - MRT timeline intact<a href="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CKpFzjiwJRE/TgP4rVNYZcI/AAAAAAAAEUo/VgF66ao2ftE/s1600/A00578886.jpg"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 300px;" src="http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CKpFzjiwJRE/TgP4rVNYZcI/AAAAAAAAEUo/VgF66ao2ftE/s400/A00578886.jpg" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5621610183199843778" border="0" /></a><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Record year.</span> 3QFY11 net profit of RM117m (+24% qo-q, +40% y-o-y) takes 9MFY11 net profit to RM299m, within our but above consensus estimates. Q-o-q EBIT growth was led by construction (+74% to RM59m) and property (+33% to RM50m). 3QFY11 construction EBIT<br />margins continued to improve, to 13.9% from 8.3% a quarter ago, lifted by the double tracking project (62% complete). 9MFY11 property sales were already equal to our previous RM1bn forecast for FY11, so we revised it to RM1.3bn.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Briefing highlights. </span>The Sungai Buloh-Kajang MRT line elevated works worth RM12-13bn could see substantial awards over the next six months. There will be c.20 packages for which 70 contractors have been prequalified. For the PDP, we are positive that prequalification for tunneling works worth RM7-8bn has started and will close on 27 June 2011. Tenders are<br />expected to open in 4Q11 with awards in 1Q12. Meanwhile, consultant Halcrow has completed its study on the remaining two lines, and the government is evaluating its proposal. Possible implementation date is mid-2012. In Vietnam, Celadon City was soft launched with 50 units registered to date. Official launch will be in July to coincide with the completion of the show unit.<br />Gamuda City is now slated for launch in Sep/Oct 2011 after ground works are done.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">BUY </span>– still most leveraged MRT proxy. Keep an eye on 27 June, the deadline for tunneling works prequalification, to see if the PDP is likely to secure the project. We still see Gamuda capitalising on its role as PDP for the conversion of RM10bn (50% share) tunneling contract wins for the entire MRT project.<br /><br />Report From HWangDBSUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2750410041113009788.post-64382146868047230352011-04-26T19:13:00.000-07:002011-04-26T19:18:41.437-07:00GAMUDA - MRT & Vietnam to transform earnings<span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">MRT & Vietnam to transform earnings</span><br /><ul><li>Potential to triple orderbook with tunneling works</li><li>Raised FY12-13F EPS after factoring in Vietnam sales</li><li>Most leveraged MRT proxy, maintain BUY and RM5.25 TP</li></ul>Gamuda received encouraging response at DBSV POA<br />conference in Hong Kong recently.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">MRT update.</span> While the tunneling tender will be via Swiss Challenge, we remain confident that the PDP’s reputation and overall better cost structure compared to foreign contractors will see it emerge the winner. The tunneling job for all three lines is worth c.RM20bn based on 40% of total<br />MRT contract value of RM50bn. Guidance is for 15% tunneling pretax margins vs 5% for non-tunneling. Timeline for award for the approved Sg. Buloh-Kajang tunneling works is by 1QCY12 (RM7.5bn), and the other lines by 3QCY12. There is room to raise our RM2.00/share<br />DCF value for the MRT project (we factored in 50% value in our SOP), premised on RM14bn total tunneling works and 8.3% blended margins.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Raised FY12F/FY13F</span><br />earnings by 12%-30% to build in stronger local property sales of RM1.1bn for each year (vs<br />RM730m-790m previously). 6MFY11 property sales of RM600m implies it could exceed its RM1b FY11 sales target, which will be revised to RM1.3bn because of the buoyant market. We also assumed maiden sales contribution from Vietnam of RM1.2bn and RM1.7bn for<br />FY12-13F, respectively, based on average 60% take ups and 16-18% margins. These are below Gamuda’s targets of RM1.5bn and RM2.1bn and 20-25% margins. Celadon City in HCMC - slated for launch soon – is seeing strong interest (200 out of 250 units pre-registered). Gamuda City in Hanoi will receive in total 40 ha of land by July, sufficient for three years of launches. Launch is scheduled for July.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Still most leveraged to RM50bn MRT project</span> - BUY.<br />There is the likely conversion of RM10bn (50% share) tunneling contract wins in CY12 with lucrative 15% margins. Despite the expected higher earnings, there is no change to our target price because it is based on DCF.<br /><br />Report From HWangDBSUnknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2750410041113009788.post-86887471688153344492010-06-14T17:04:00.000-07:002010-06-14T17:20:04.335-07:00HWangDBS Report About Gamuda, TP RM4.45<span style="font-weight: bold;">Gamuda (RM2.95; Buy; Price Target: RM4.45; GAM MK)</span><br /><span style="color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Carving out the most lucrative portion</span><br />The Edge weekly carried a cover story on the proposed MRT system. Below are some key salient points :-<br /><br /><ol><li>The project size is estimated at RM36bn vs earlier estimate of RM30bn. This makes it the biggest mega project in Malaysia’s history;</li><li>The project could receive RM3.6bn or 10% of cost from the facilitation grant of RM20bn set aside for PPP projects during the 10MP;</li><li>The proposal by MMC-Gamuda was unsolicited and the government has decided to put it out to tender in a ‘Swiss challenge’. Other parties in particular a China company led consortium is threatening to steal this project away from the JV.</li><li>Gamuda-MMC JV will only be bidding for the tunnelling portion works estimated at 30% of project cost or RM10.8bn in spite of it being the mastermind behind the proposal. About 70% of project cost will be competitive bidding which the JV cannot bid due to conflict of interest. Foreign contractors will only be allowed to bid for the remaining 30%.</li><li>The rationale of the project is to bring Malaysia more in line with other developed countries in terms of number of km of rail per one million population. Malaysia currently stands at 15 vs Singapore of 40, Hong Kong of 26, Seoul of 27, London of 53 and New York of 47.</li><li>Gamuda-MMC JV has set a target of 40% of all trips in and out of Greater KL done via public transport and half of this done via rail by 2020. Currently Greater KL has a population of 4.3m. Of the 8m trips done to and fro everyday, only 18% or 1.44m trips are via public transport (bus and rail) and of this 1.44m trips, only 400,000 or 20% are done via rail. </li></ol><br /><a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Gepabi82OHI/TBbG8PtHUuI/AAAAAAAADHY/X1MSEb3z6H4/s1600/untitled.bmp"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 320px; height: 224px;" src="http://4.bp.blogspot.com/_Gepabi82OHI/TBbG8PtHUuI/AAAAAAAADHY/X1MSEb3z6H4/s320/untitled.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5482788334680363746" border="0" /></a>Our view : We remain confident of the JV clinching the tunnelling portion works worth RM10.8bn in spite of talks of competition from other parties. While the contract amount of RM10.8bn for the JV is lower than expected (RM5.4bn equalled shared between Gamuda and MMC), we expect this portion to be the most lucrative carrying the highest margins. Gamuda’s current orderbook stands at RM7bn. Hence this project could lift its orderbook by 77% to RM12.4bn. Assuming a pretax margin of 12%, potential profit accretion throughout the tenure of the project is RM648m or 24 sen per share.<br /><br />We reiterate our Buy rating and SOP-derived TP of RM4.45/share.<br /><br />Published by<br />HWANGDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd (128540 U)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0