tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-27504100411130097882023-06-20T05:21:25.657-07:00FBM KLCIFBM KLCI | Malaysia Share Market | Make Money With Share Market | Bursa Malaysia | KLSE | Warrant | Share Market | Make Profit In Share MarketUnknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2750410041113009788.post-83971012643673569422010-08-03T07:59:00.000-07:002010-08-03T08:07:24.423-07:00Axiata Group - Exciting growth ahead<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Gepabi82OHI/TFgwjhuhdOI/AAAAAAAADOo/G6EaIcWjHOM/s1600/untitled.bmp"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 400px; height: 372px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Gepabi82OHI/TFgwjhuhdOI/AAAAAAAADOo/G6EaIcWjHOM/s400/untitled.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5501200331740116194" border="0" /></a><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Exciting growth ahead</span><br /><ol><li>Strengthened by Malaysian and Indonesian operations</li><li>Raise FY10F-FY11F net profit by 4%-6%</li><li>Raised sum-of-parts TP to RM4.75; maintain BUY</li></ol><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Celcom is well-managed.</span> Our meeting with Axiata’s wholly-owned subsidiary, Celcom (Malaysian celco) revealed that it is well-managed. It is growing healthily in the broadband segment, and on track to meet its 70K Blackberry net add target for this year. This is supported<br />by its widest 80% 3G/3.5G coverage. The GSM segment remains key to Celcom, with growth opportunities in the foreign worker segment, under-served rural areas, and MVNO partnerships. We expect Celcom to perform well this year and next, with sustainable EBITDA margin of c.45%. Celcom makes up c.45% of Axiata’s earnings and 68% of our valuation estimate.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">XL exceeded expectations.</span> 67%-owned XL in Indonesia reported strong 2Q10 result yesterday, beating consensus EBITDA estimate by 18%. This was mainly driven by growth in the SMS and mobile internet segments. DBS Vickers raised FY10F-FY11F net profit for XL by >20%, which resulted in 6%-8% upside to Axiata’s group net profit. However, this is mitigated by 1%-2% downward pressure (on group NI) by Dialog in Sri Lanka. Tariff hike (started Jul10) in a price sensitive market due to regulatory intervention (price floor) could dampen revenue growth ahead.<br /><br /><span style="font-weight: bold; color: rgb(255, 0, 0);">Raised price target following 13% upgrade to XL’s valuation.</span> Celcom’s performance in Malaysia remains healthy, while the outlook for XL in Indonesia is improving. Axiata’s growth prospect is good, with forecast 3-year earnings CAGR of 43%.<br /><br /><br />Report by<br />HWANGDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd (128540 U)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-2750410041113009788.post-91828698431844974562010-06-22T20:45:00.000-07:002010-06-22T20:51:32.449-07:00Axiata - Dividend and capex guidance<a onblur="try {parent.deselectBloggerImageGracefully();} catch(e) {}" href="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Gepabi82OHI/TCGEl7N7ZSI/AAAAAAAADI4/HrPoR27HVx0/s1600/untitled.bmp"><img style="float: left; margin: 0pt 10px 10px 0pt; cursor: pointer; width: 317px; height: 352px;" src="http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_Gepabi82OHI/TCGEl7N7ZSI/AAAAAAAADI4/HrPoR27HVx0/s400/untitled.bmp" alt="" id="BLOGGER_PHOTO_ID_5485811608200111394" border="0" /></a>Axiata told the media after its AGM yesterday that it would announce a dividend policy by 3Q10. The company guided FY10F capex of RM3.6b, which includes RM1b for Celcom in Malaysia, USD500m for Excelcomindo in Indonesia, USD100m for Dialog in Sri Lanka and USD100m for Robi in Bangladesh. Further, Axiata plans to issue RM4.2b in Islamic debt by next month to refinance its existing loans. As the Islamic debt replaces existing facilities, there would<br />be negligible impact on our forecasts.<br /><br />We had already factored in a slightly more conservative capex of RM3.7b for FY10F, which we see no need to update at this moment as the impact on earnings and valuation of Axiata is minimal. Since Axiata is announcing a dividend policy in 3Q10, which need not necessarily mean a payout, we had omitted a dividend payout for FY10F, but have assumed dividend payouts to start in FY11F. We have imputed a token amount of 10% only vs. a previous target of 30%,<br />which we intend to review once the official policy is announced.<br /><br />We are keeping our forecasts, sum-of-parts price target of RM4.50 and BUY recommendation on Axiata. Further cost reduction in both operating and network costs are catalyst for future re-rating of Axiata.<br /><br /><span style="font-style: italic;">Published by</span> <span style="font-style: italic;">HWANGDBS Vickers Research Sdn Bhd (128540 U)</span>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0